Monitoring the housing market is very important for many, particularly those doctors and dentists who are looking to purchase their first home or who are investing in buy-to-let properties. Our monthly Property Price Update gives you a summary of what the experts are saying.
This article does not constitute advice. Professional advice should be taken prior to acting on any part of it. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage or any other debt secured on it.
UK Property Market Update
The new year is off to a good start, with UK house prices up .7% in January. This price rise resulted in annual house price growth jumping to -.2%, up from -1.8% in December, the strongest outturn in a year. The average house price rose ever so slightly from £257,443 in December to £257,656 this January.
Looking ahead
With mortgages rates continuing to trend downward, potential buyers are feeling a bit more optimistic about their prospects. This has followed on from investors improving their financial outlook based on the prediction that the Bank of England will lower rates in the future.
These shifts in opinion are important, but in recent weeks inflation has been stronger than expected and activity data was not where industry experts wanted it to be, so the overall outlook on interest rates remains uncertain.
While a quick rebound is not likely to be on the horizon in 2024, it’s not all “doom and gloom” according to a recent RICS survey. The survey suggests that new buyer enquiries are no longer declining and that there are tentative signs that the number of properties on the market will increase soon. But a lot still hinges on how mortgage rates evolve and their effect on affordability.
At the moment, affordability is the key aspect holding back market activity. At the end of last year, a borrower earning the average UK income buying their first property with a 20% deposit has a monthly mortgage payment that was equivalent to 38% of their take home pay, an increase of 8 percentage points about the long run average of 30%.
Average mortgage rates simply trending down to 4% would go a long way to decrease the burden borrowers are paying each month, down to 34% of their take-home pay. But it would take mortgage rates falling down to 3% (still well above lows seen in the wake of COVID) to bring the level of affordability back to its own long-run average.
Stay in the know
If you’re planning to buy or sell property, check back monthly for our regular update on the nation’s property prices and contact one of our advisers for personalised advice.
Figures quoted from Nationwide House Price index – January 2024.
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