As the results of economic recovery efforts start rolling in, the UK government is optimistic about the future. Optimism should remain cautious, though, as the future isn’t certain and the spread of COVID-19 remains a threat.
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What can we be optimistic about?
Chancellor Rishi Sunak happily reported that the number of people receiving furlough money in June dropped by 560,000 to 1.9 million people and he remains hopeful about new forecasts to come at the end of October.
While the official figures of coronavirus hospitalisation cases fell recently, the drop is not drastic enough to feel totally secure, experts say because rising infection rates are still making consumers wary of spending and forcing people back into isolation after exposure.
However, vaccination efforts are the best line of defence against the virus, even new variants that crop up, with analysis from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research suggesting that “herd immunity may be in sight.”
What should we expect next?
Since lockdown restrictions eased, the economy has ebbed and flowed, but it seems to be on stable ground and on track for a long-lasting recovery. Experts don’t expect a complete return to pre-pandemic levels quite yet, though they remain hopeful that it will happen by early next year.
As long as the Delta variant wave is contained as much as possible, the UK economy should benefit from a strong recovery. By the autumn, the review ordered by Sunak will inform budget decisions for key government areas. There is expected to be lots of spending requests from all sides, including funding for the NHS, schools, social care, and tackling climate change among the requests the chancellor will need to deal with.
Looking to the Budget
It’s not yet been decided if Sunak will hold a full Budget announcement this autumn, and he might choose to delay many important decisions until after more is known about recovery efforts. A date for the announcement has not yet been set, but expected to be confirmed in September.
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